A new report by the Scottish government has predicted a £16 billion a year hit to the Scottish economy, assuming a hard Brexit.
The report calculated the cost to Scotland of Brexit and leaving the single market with or without a trade deal. It warned of a £12.7 billion cost for Scotland, as well as a fall in household incomes by 9.6 percent.
Results of the report were announced by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in Edinburgh.
“For the sake of jobs, the economy and the next generation, today we are calling on the UK government to drop its hard Brexit red lines so that Scotland and the UK can stay inside the single market and customs union,” she said, alongside her Brexit minister Mike Russell.
Scottish Conservatives have called the new report “completely over-the-top scaremongering”.
The report, titled ‘Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment’ considered three different Brexit scenarios: EEA membership, a Canada-style free-trade agreement, and going back to basic World Trade Organisation rules.
According to Russell, the “least worst” option would be retaining single market membership. This variant of Brexit would see the Scottish GDP 2.7 percent less in 2030 (£688 per head).
This is compared to a free-trade agreement, which would cut the GDP by 6.1 percent (£1,610 per head), and the WTO rules that would cut GDP by 8.5 percent (£2,263 per head).
In response to the report, a UK government spokesperson said: “We are seeking a deal that works for the whole of the UK, that delivers on the result of the EU referendum.
“Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK’s vital internal market.
“Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as it does with the EU, so it is vital that we ensure that market continues unimpeded.”