The latest YouGov poll has predicted a hung parliament, with just one week to go before the election.
A survey conducted by YouGov for The Times has suggested that Theresa May may fall short of a majority, in a shocking blow to the Conservative party.
Since Prime Minister May announced her intention to call a snap election last month, a marked double figure lead for the Conservatives has significantly narrowed in the polls.
According to the survey, the current government may find itself 16 seats short of a majority, and 21 short of David Cameron’s majority back in 2015.
The government has come under fire in recent weeks for its manifesto pledges, and the introduction of several controversial policies such as removing free school lunches and the so-called “dementia tax”, both of which have been received unfavourably among many sections of the electorate.
YouGov chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare, told The Times: “The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats.
“Based on the model’s current estimates, some seats are likely to change hands along EU referendum dividing lines.”
Conversely, Labour has been making significant progress in the polls in the past few weeks, driven in part by a surge in support from young voters and women.
According to a similar poll conducted by The Telegraph, 40 percent of the female population now intend to vote for Labour, compared to 41 per cent for the Conservatives. Such figures suggest that Theresa May has dropped 15 points in two weeks.
Moreover, Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto promise to scrap tuition fees from this Autumn has attracted a surge support from young people. Notably, 246,487 young people registered to vote since Monday.
Nevertheless, statistically young people remain among the most apathetic, with consistently low electoral turnouts. In 2015, 6 out of 10 18-24 year olds voted in the General Election.
Consequently, it remains to be seen whether Labour’s mobilisation of support from the youth will materialize come June 8th. The upcoming General Election will prove a key indicator as to the reliability of polling in the age of social media.
In recent years polls have proved increasingly inaccurate means of measuring results, given the shock election of Donald Trump in the U.S and the unforeseen Conservative majority back in 2015 in the U.K.
Sterling fell 0.55 percent against the dollar in under half an hour following the publication of the poll by the Times late on Tuesday. It last traded at $1.2804 vs $1.2862 prior the news.