A new government document assessing the economic impacts of Brexit has been leaked.
The document suggests Brexit will damage the UK economy, no matter which trade deal is decided on.
The leaked government analysis says the UK economy will grow more slowly whether it is decided on a free trade deal, single market access or no deal at all.
Looking over a 15-year post-Brexit period, the document said that the national income will be eight percent lower under a no deal scenario, five percent lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and two percent lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership.
The paper is titled EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing and suggests every part of the UK economy will suffer.
This morning on the Today programme, Conservative MP and leave campaigner Iain Duncan Smith said the document should be taken “with a pinch of salt”, as many Brexit related forecasts tend to be wrong.
“It’s an incomplete report… deliberately leaked because it gives a bad view,” he said.
In the document, it says that clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, cars and retail will be the hardest hit and every UK region will be negatively affected. The north-east, the West Midlands and Northern Ireland are likely to face the hardest economic hit.
“According to the government’s secret analysis, even the softest Brexit scenario will mean a two percent hit to growth,” said Eloise Todd, the chief executive of anti-Brexit organisation Best for Britain.
“Almost every community, region and sector of the economy included in the analysis would be negatively impacted. The case for or against Brexit should be about more than balance sheets, but it’s painfully clear that the numbers are a gloomy part of the story. And behind these numbers are thousands of jobs, businesses and homes that are at risk.
“The government are calling this document embarrassing but it’s more than that. It is a colossal act of economic self harm, written down clearly, in black and white. We are reading about an economy facing the abyss.”